As we noted in last weekend's report, "A bounce higher into the 4530 area followed by another leg lower seems to be the highest Odds path right now. If so, I will be looking for a short signal to develop on rally this week.. 4470/75 is resistance.. exceeded this will have us targeting the 4500/10 area.. below the 4435 area, we are likely to test the 4400 support zone before further upside attempts."
What actually happened is the Emini S&P 500 (ES) rallied into into the 4560s and then collapsed.
Last week was filled with the shenanigans that we see at times around quarterly opex. First a rally to get most shorts out of the system followed by a dump to finish off the week. Price right now is in a decent support area around 4500. If we hold here, another attempt higher is possible, but more likely there is some more downside into the 4450 and then possibly a rally attempt.
Internals are on the weaker side along with price. Our Odds Indicator went to sell during the last week and stayed on sell. I am going to be looking for a long signal in the coming week for a bounce higher, possibly more, but will stay short as long as Odds stays short. Below 4500, it is likely for us to target the 4450/40 area, and above 4520 area, we likely target the 4540/45 zone.
Price action is bearish short term, neutral/bearish medium term and bullish long term.
Grey zone resistance at 4526-37 and then 4557-68. Support is at 4505/4492 and 4473-62 area.
For Monday, daily pivot is at 4520. Resistance R1 is at 4545 and R2 at 4592. Support S1 is at 4473 and S2 at 4448.
All the best to your trading week ahead.