Is NDX Heading To $32k Or Is A Top Setting Up In The $14k Region

On both the smaller timeframe (since September) and the larger (since March), I prefer the black count, which portends the latter (i.e., a top).  Since September the black count portends an ending diagonal wave (5) currently in c of 3 targeting 12,930-13,200 on the Nasdaq 100. 

In either blue or black a pullback from target region is reasonably likely. The key support that will determine the likelihood of blue/black is the pivot region which now should function as support down to $12,340. 

If the blue count is in effect we should see price make no sustained break below 12,340 at any time in the next year-plus as NDX makes its way to $32k in 5 waves off the March 2020 lows. However, a sustained break below 12,340 would increase odds of the black count, which would be in wave 4 of (5) with one more high in 5 of (5) targeting $13600-$14,320

Lastly, in the most bullish case, which is never to be discounted in this market, a direct break through the aforementioned resistance region overhead, 12,930-13,200, without any discernible pullback would be a strong signal in favor of the blue count. Even still, 12340 will need to hold on any pullback, but it would go a long way towards "confirming" the most bullish intentions of NDX joining the melt-up party.

Jason Appel is a financial markets veteran who hosts our Beginners Circle section for new members and covers digital currencies, agricultural commodities, and U.S. stocks and indices.