In Case You Missed It ... Week Ending Friday Sep 4th, 2026
By
Lou Alfieri
In Case You Missed It…
Volume remains on the low side. Despite a 145-point trading range over the past week, SPX closed little changed, forming a doji/indecision candle on the weekly chart.
SPX tested the prior June highs from above on Tuesday, Sept. 1st (circled on the chart below), and as of Friday’s close it remains in a sideways trend above its June highs. Note that we also came close to testing the 50 day ema (pink line), which has been rising while SPX marched sideways.
The Gamma Threshold level currently sits close to 7670 SPX and has been stable in that vicinity for almost three weeks. We are barely long gamma, which reads to me as more indecision. Read more about the GT level here: Understanding the GT level.
As a brief reminder, the NDX chart is giving us much less to work with. Even my indicators are not providing me any decent clues as to where NDX may be headed next.
Perhaps the return of trading volumes after the holiday will be able to break the major indexes out of their sideways patterns. That is my base case heading into the next two weeks.
As for directionality on the indexes, here is Avi’s 15min ES chart, posted in the Flagship Service on Friday afternoon:
You will notice that the white and yellow paths are still on the chart as we watch it continue to fill in. The yellow path is labeled as the alternate path but there really is no “edge” to be found here on the near term. So as unsatisfying as it may be, we find ourselves still waiting and watching until the market catches a trend.
Bi-Weekly Sector Review
For a deeper dive into the markets, MarkZ will be putting out his latest Sector Review this weekend. Without spoiling anything, I can say that there are two sectors presenting interesting setups from an options perspective. It is an interesting duo, those two sectors. In addition, there are several sectors forming setups that would be more appropriate to take with shares (instead of options). You will be able to find the report in the Flagship Service here, after Mark posts it: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post-type/initial/section/366/links/1. Mark usually includes a table comparing performance of the different sectors (on different time-frames) that some of us find very helpful.
Volatility
Volatility as measured by VIX is in the mid 14s, the same as last week.
The Metals (and Miners) Trade
The metals complex has been busy recently. I, personally, re-established positions in 3 of the miners that I had taken profits on and am about 25% invested in the metals trade, compared to what I would like to invest. So I am leaving plenty of room to add if prices go lower. I did not re-buy GDX yet and am hoping to do so in the $80s. I am watching Avi, who is tracking the precious metals complex very closely. I am looking forward to the Weekend Update on Metals. Though I must say that the entire Metals, Miners, & Agriculture service analysts are guiding us through this with excellence.
Other Trades?
We have discussed other charts recently and I want to report that none of those instruments appear ready for a trade at this time. This includes USO, TLT and .DXY.
HOMEWORK
It is a three-day weekend and we all know what that means: it means we should try to find 3-5 quiet hours to do our trading homework. To that end, I am going to highlight a few sections of our Education Center (which is very comprehensive and covers many topics):
Having a hard time figuring out where fundamentals come into play when we all know that sentiment is what drives the markets, and even individual stock charts? Avi explains it here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Sentiment-Speaks-When-To-Properly-Use-The-FWord-Fundamentals-When-Investing-202103176849449.html.
Just because we have been given permission to address fundamentals, we must keep them in context. Avi does a great job explaining the limitations of fundamentals, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Sentiment-Speaks-How-To-Use-Earnings-To-Dramatically-Increase-Your-Stock-Market-Returns-202304218461099.html.
You can find all of Avi’s Sentiment Speaks articles here: Avi's Sentiment Speaks articles.
There are articles in the Education Center that explain how to best read your indicators, and do you read them the same way in every market condition? No. How to Read Technicals Differently in Bull & Bear Markets? and What Does A Positive MACD Mean During A Correction?.
If you are a beginner and curious how Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Pinball work, then I often recommend first reading Avi’s Welcome Letter, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/getting-started. On that web page you will also find links to information about the services we offer.
Regarding the services offered on our website, I encourage anyone to “@Lou” me in a post so I can answer your questions. I am here to assist with most general matters and have access to Jason for more technical questions. So if you need assistance please find a way to get my attention in the room because it is likely at least a dozen other members have the same question you do.
Finally, ICYMI, Dr. Cari posted her Weekly Outlook to the Flagship Service, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10363961. There may be a sharp drop alert in play through Tuesday. She should be updating us this weekend on her outlook.
Have a great long weekend everyone. I will be around for part of the weekend (doing homework!) so please post any questions in the replies. In the next two weeks we will see if liquidity is sufficient for the increased trading volumes we may get. It should be obvious soon which path (yellow or white) is playing out.
