In Case You Missed It ... Week Ending Friday Sep 11, 2026

In Case You Missed It…

SPX dropped approximately 62 points this week. This shortened week consisted of four days where SPX had an opening gap and then traded flat for the entire day. Intraday traders did not have an easy time of it on the equity indexes this week:

On Thursday, SPX dipped back into the trading range it had established back in May and quickly recovered. Volume has risen to its moving average line, but volumes overall remain muted. There is a clear lack of buyers, but the same can be said about sellers. In the grander scheme of things, SPX is still hovering very close to the gamma threshold level (a common theme for 2026) and price is essentially range-bound.

Here is the weekly chart of SPX. Notice the Time-Segmented Volume indicator; there does exist some weakness underlying the sideways price action shown on the charts.

In addition, Avi is still “looking down as long as the market remains below the wave 2 in the 7757SPX region.” Here is Avi’s 5min SPX “simple” chart, posted today in the Flagship Service; this chart is the cleanest way to view the near term count in equities:

This chart depicts the yellow count we have been tracking for some time. The yellow count falls into the ‘low probability’ category at this time. The (newer) blue count is also a bullish count, which has us proceeding lower first to a possible wave 2 low. Notably, under either count, Avi wants us to know that if either of those counts play out as expected then there will be a set of 1-2s off that low, each bringing us right back to the price region we are at now. In other words, the sideways action begun in May could extend for several more months yet. That possibility is certainly important to be aware of, though it would frustrate many traders and investors (which is precisely why it is important to be aware of).

Finally, there is a red count not depicted on this chart that is bearish, and is the count that could introduce a bear market. Avi wants to see some “downside resolution,” and a corrective retracement back up, before making that count primary. But you don’t need me to sum up Avi’s analysis for you as the Weekend Analysis has already been posted, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10369488.

Avi also posted the Weekend Updates for TLT, USO, and Metals on Friday. All of which can be found under the “Weekend Reports” tab at the top of the page for Avi and Mike’s Market Alerts, as shown here:

Or just click here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post-type/initial/section/31/section/237/header/AviWeekend/links/1.

Volatility

Volatility as measured by VIX was in the mid 14s for two weeks and after rising to over 18 this week, settled at 15.84. Ultimately, VIX increased a little.

Other Trades

As mentioned, Avi finished the Weekend Updates early this week and so we have his latest analysis on TLT and USO at the link above.

Avi’s latest Weekend Metals Update can also be found at the link above. If you recall, I am in a metals and miners long trade with Avi. We both trimmed positions at the recent highs of the metals complex. We are both looking to add back to our positions. We are both still watching and waiting. For context, I now have some open miner positions that total about 25% of what I’d like to invest in this trade long term. The Metals, Miners, and Agriculture service has a wave setup list with some charts being actionable now.

I have not added back any GDX yet, though would like to as we get closer to the $90 region (wave white 2 on Avi’s GDX chart). I will most likely just add a 1/3 size tranche in the low $90s. But for now, Avi is tracking the possibility of a wider (b) wave across the complex in purple.

ICYMI

Levi will be posting his SPX chart “homework” late on Friday. I never sleep on Levi’s counts and he is excellent at providing context. If there is an edge for next week, he will find it. His post is in the Flagship Service, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10369718.

Anyone who went long after reading Carolyn’s SPX post on Thursday did very well. I always do a search for Carolyn, Tammy, and Shannon to make sure I don’t miss what they post to the Flagship Service:

Finally, in the weekend homework department, Lead analyst Zac Mannes recorded the Weekly Beginners Video on Wednesday and all of that analysis is still relevant today (because most markets did not move much this week). Beginners Videos are not just for beginners, and often include a wide range of charts. The video can be found here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/videos/Beginners-Circle-Weekly-Webinar-2026090925412.html.

We are still waiting for a trend (other than sidesways) to emerge on the major equity indexes. In the meantime, I am looking for opportunities in a broad range of sectors and plan to report back what I see. If you feel like there is a trade in the Flagship Service that I am missing, please let me know in the replies. Right now, the metals trade is the most actionable. But TLT is moving along and when it finally decides to reverse there may be a trade there as well.