In Case You Missed It: Week Ending Friday, July 31st, 2026

In Case You Missed It…

As expected, it was not a boring week for equities or volatility. Excluding the broad-based short squeeze seen on Thursday, the equity indexes remain out of sync with each other. I have never seen this condition last this long. It portends more choppy, sideways, price action and the word I have been repeating for months now: indecision. To that end, we are still trading around the Gamma Threshold level and have yet to establish a true long- or short-gamma regime. As a quick aside, Thursday’s pattern on NDX is worth studying: It was a textbook short squeeze complete with a small rally in the final hour where the last of the shorts give up hope and buy to cover before the close.

Volume on the indexes improved a little this week and liquidity has been sufficient (not plentiful) for the trading volumes we have been seeing. SPX gained approximately 78 points this week and still remains in its two month long sideways range:

Note that I have Avi’s fib drawn on my chart; this is a good habit to get into.

Returning now to an update of the daily NDX chart I shared last week, we have a slightly different story. NDX did break below its sideways support level last Friday, and we can see that it regained (slightly) that sideways support level this Friday:

This leaves the indexes not much different from where they were last week. The signals are still a little mixed. This week had a multitude of catalysts and the whipsaw in price that goes with them. It is hard to discern a trend based on an anomalous week. I anticipate more organic trading next week when we will be able to gather more insightful data.

Retail traders (and small funds managers, who trade just as poorly as retail) are heavily influenced by retail news and have been starkly divided on sentiment for the better part of two years now. In my opinion, this has significantly contributed to the choppy market conditions we have had for 18 months. In Elliott Wave parlance, it is reflected in the high number of diagonals found on many charts. I am also noticing more WXY patterns. It may take a catalyst to get retail all on the same page to establish a breakout, or breakdown, from the range we are in. In the meantime, I heartily agree with Avi in suggesting our Stock Waves service because individual company/sector charts don’t all reverse at the same time and some setups are ripe now.

Finally, because it serves as the anchor to all my analysis, it pays to know the latest from Avi, who is still tracking a triangle on SPX in the immediate-term, of which we may be completing an e wave this week or early next week (a zoomed-in view):

Until or unless we break above Avi’s 7580 SPX level, the yellow (bullish) count remains the alternate. I want to be ready in case a b wave triangle completes and we have a c wave down and I want to be ready in case the yellow count becomes the primary and we are headed to new highs. That is the work we must do as traders: the posture of the equity markets are such that we need to have action plans ready for both scenarios.

I encourage everyone to read Avi’s Weekend Updates on Saturday/Sunday in the Flagship Service and watch Avi’s Weekly Video from Wednesday morning if you missed it, available to the Flagship Service, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/videos/Avis-Weekly-Video-2026072925049.html.

The Bi-Weekly Sector Review

When looking for instruments to trade, a new feature of the Flagship Service is the bi-weekly Sector Review by analyst MarkZ. These are posted every other weekend. Last week’s Sector Review is here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10300135. MarkZ stresses that these charts can produce setups with clearly defined risk/return parameters (the targets and stop-losses are defined). Mark reviews many sectors each week and not all are actionable every week, but some may be easily traded with shares. Mark also includes tables depicting the performance of each sector across multiple time frames. Some sectors may be actionable when the major indexes are not.

The Sector Review can easily be found by selecting Avi & Mike's Market Alerts (the Flagship Service) and then choosing "Sector Review" as seen here: 

Selecting "Sector Reviews" from the menu will bring up all of MarkZ's posts on the sector charts. He sometimes posts updates mid-week and this will ensure you see all the latest on sectors from Mark.

The Fibonacci Queen

ICYMI- Carolyn Boroden, the host of our Fibonacci Markets & Stocks service on Thursday shared her end of day Market Video with the Flagship Service and opened it up to the public at large. She covers the broad market indices (or related ETFs), Gold, Silver, selected stocks, Bitcoin, and more. Anyone with the following link can watch the presentation: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/videos/Example-for-MARKETS-2026073025070.html.

Trader Psychology

No trader is immune from becoming tilted. This is most true in challenging market conditions. I spent most of this article reviewing SPX and NDX to illustrate the chop/sideways/indecision and pointing out the relevant levels where that might change. I also pointed out two services that focus on individual stocks, some of which are presenting easier, clearer patterns to trade. It is important to stay focused. It is just as important to check in on how, as a trader, we are dealing with the market condition mentally and emotionally. All emotions have no role in trading successfully. (Before becoming a trader, if someone told me that being a stock trader was half a mental game, I would not have believed them. “Its just math,” I thought. But we are human beings with limbic systems that take over when we get emotional.) I am constantly checking in with myself to make sure I have all of that under control when I’m working.

On Friday in the Beginners Circle, lead analyst Mike Golembesky took a moment to address this, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10325295. Not every instrument is ripe for trading at all times. The equity indexes are presenting that way now. The key is to recognize this (feeling frustrated is one clue) and plan to preserve your capital for use later, or elsewhere. This post is important to read, as even seasoned traders need these reminders from time to time. I will end with some wise words from that article:

“One of the biggest mistakes traders make is exhausting not only their financial capital, but also their mental capital by trying to trade every swing inside a choppy market. When the market finally does break free from this consolidation, you need to be financially and emotionally prepared to take advantage of the opportunity with confidence. If you have spent weeks overtrading a difficult environment, you often won't have the capital or the mindset to capitalize when the high-probability setup finally arrives.”

Mike states the problem: swing trading choppy price action, and Mike states the solution: trade that instrument less. Granted this is easier said than done, but knowing when not to trade is a big delineating factor between the traders who make it and the traders who don’t.

Have a good, restful weekend everyone. We were expecting a busy week and we got one. I am looking for next week to be more clarifying.

(Learn more about the GT level here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/gamma-optimizer/Understanding-the-GT-level-202012076573537.html.)