In Case You Missed It: Week Ending Friday, July 24th, 2026
By
Lou Alfieri
In Case You Missed It…
In general, the major equity indexes remain out of sync with trading volumes below average. Liquidity was slightly lacking on Thursday and Friday. SPX lost approximately 45 points this week and for now remains in its two month long sideways range. Of note is NDX, which did break below its sideways support level on Friday, closing just off the final hour low of the day: (notice the size difference between the candles leading into the top (controlled) and those after the top was struck)
But again, SPX held support. It seems that we are getting ever closer to a resolution on the equity indexes, and while a bearish inference can certainly be made, the bull case is not dead yet. Here is Lead Analyst Mike Golembesky's latest ES chart posted Friday afternoon in the Flagship Service, (here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10315995):
The GT level currently sits at 7450 SPX (+/- 10). This week’s short gamma regime was short lived, just like the long gamma regime before it. Now SPX is essentially back to the GT level. It has been this way for almost all of 2026. This suggests to me an element of indecision among large market participants. (Learn more about the GT level here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/gamma-optimizer/Understanding-the-GT-level-202012076573537.html.)
Volatility
The VIX index closed at 18.55. The VIX futures term structure (depicted here using vixcentral.com’s VolChart.io tool) has perked up across the curve since the beginning of July but is not at alarming levels by any means.
Even though there is a hint of flattening at the front end of the curve, the term structure remains in contango/un-inverted at this time. So, while the increase in volatility is clear, it remains to be seen if this can be maintained next week.
In accordance with the equity indexes, VIX is also flashing orange warning lights. For folks who want to know how I prepare for a major liquidity event, my latest (from June 2nd) in a series of Beginners Circle posts tagged, “ExitStrategy” can be found here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10258960. I also have a plan for a melt-up, but that is as easy as establishing a few watch-lists.
Metals and Bonds
In a brief follow-up on metals, I can state that the Metals, Mining & Agriculture service has put out a good number of miner charts as many of us across EWT continue to leisurely layer into positions. Avi’s latest charts were posted to the Flagship Service on Thursday, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10314715.
Meanwhile, the US 10yr bond yield made a 52-week high this week. So, we can add that to the list of warning signs.
The Semiconductor (or any other) Trade
The Flagship Service gets bonuses all the time, such as when Jason, Levi, or one of the analysts from our trading rooms posts something they are seeing. On Tuesday morning, Tammy Marshall from our Fibonacci Markets & Stocks service posted the following Micron chart, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10310188:
I used the opportunity to sell calls for this week against my position. Other than a brief spike higher mid-week, her fib at $976 held and I pocketed the premium. (Whether I am willing to hold my shares down to her support in the $800 region is another question.)
A search for Tammy, Carolyn, or Shannon under “People” will bring up all their latest posts for which you have access. For example, Shannon on Thursday posted an update on DELL to the Flagship Service, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10314383. These bonuses show up in our main room all the time.
Have a restful weekend everyone. I don’t expect next week to be boring.
