In Case You Missed It: Week Ending Friday July 10th, 2026
By
Lou Alfieri
After being out of sync with each other for a couple weeks, the major equity indexes are starting to conform a little better. This should make it easier to establish a trend. Yet for now, the trend since at least June, remains sideways (the blue line is the GT Level):
Notice also that volume was low this week. SPX rose approximately 90 points this week, or a little over 1%.
The market tried to flip short gamma Monday and failed. It also traded below the GT level intraday Wednesday but couldn’t sustain it. We are back to being long gamma now, so low realized variance and slow upside drift should be expected. But I would like to see us maintain some distance between price and the GT level for a few more sessions before I let down my guard. The GT level is approximately 7470 and Leo posted about this in the Flagship Service on Wednesday, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10296094.
**ICYMI Leo opened up his weekly live video to the Flagship Service membership on Friday. Leo’s weekly videos delve into the volatility space and adds incredibly helpful context to the index. The link is here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10299649.
Leo also posted the slides from his live video, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10299658. More about the GT level can be found here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/gamma-optimizer/Understanding-the-GT-level-202012076573537.html.
Update on the metals trade:
On Thursday, Avi Gilburt provided a mid-week update on the metals complex. The title of the article says it all, “Another Bounce Before Final Lows?” Please read the complete update, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10297263. Avi wrote, “With the downside follow through, and GDX seeing a lower low just under 72, there is some potential that this correction could be completing sooner rather than later. But, for now, I still think we go lower and it could take a bit more time to get there as we could conceivably see one more loop higher before lower lows are struck.”
Checking in on US Bonds:
Avi shared his latest TLT chart in the Weekly Live Video on July 1st. Here is the chart:
TLT has come down a bit since this chart but not by much. At first glance the setup looks quite enticing. However, notice how wave (4) has now overlapped wave (1). Avi noticed this and pointed out this would force wave green 1 to be a leading diagonal at best. He then suggested that if TLT price were to ascend toward the wave (5) target for wave green 1, followed by a corrective pullback towards wave 2, then we may be presented with a trade to the long side for wave 3.
In an example of different analysts posting different counts, please note that Garrett and MarkZ have a count leading to lower prices first. It looks like this:
To summarize, TLT is presenting a potential long trade that is now based off a leading diagonal. This reduces confidence. In addition, other analysts show possible further downside for TLT. It is still a situation worth monitoring as there is good point gain potential on the long side if we get a wave 1 followed by a corrective pullback to wave green 2 on Avi’s chart.
Confluence of Analysts:
Speaking of analysts showing different counts, I received this question on Friday (cleaned up a little with AI):
“@Lou ... The variance in potential outcomes among the analysts is wide — and getting wider. For example, this week one analyst has an alternate SPX path that reaches 8,400, while another projects a base-case move to 5,300. Some degree of dispersion is expected, but when the “macro” outlooks within the same service diverge this dramatically, how is a subscriber supposed to position a portfolio? Many of us aren’t day traders; we manage for the mid‑ to long‑term.
In the past, I’ve handled this by “picking a jockey,” and as another subscriber wisely put it, “just listen to Avi’s posts and ignore the rest.” That approach is helpful, but it also means missing the valuable insights offered by the other analysts.
I’m raising this because I can’t be the only one trying to navigate these conflicting views. A suggestion on how to address this would be appreciated.”
This is a great question and one Avi has written an article about, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/market-update/What-If-Mom-And-Dad-Disagree-202007036153674.html.
I replied to the question with my method of handling analyst agreement/disagreement in practice:
“I can tell you how I do this: I do follow all the analysts, but there is a system I use to make sense of all their counts,…
First, when analysts agree that is a confluence of analysts and we can have a higher degree of confidence in the count/outcome. I think we can all agree on that.
The converse is true, though. When the analysts start disagreeing then my confidence in any of the counts goes down. I absolutely 100% factor this into my trading. I’m much less likely to take a trade.
Here is how I do it:
1. Get a good handle on Avi’s count.
2. Look at Mike’s count.
3. If those two agree, then that is my base case. If they don’t agree (super rare) then I need a very strong weight of the evidence trade to go against Avi. He’s just right too often.
4. No matter what, also keep an eye on what the StockWaves crew are seeing. They are tapped into thousands of tickers that make up the indexes that Mike and Avi chart. Simply checking Garrett’s ES chart once a week is good for this.
5. Final step is to check Levi’s charts. It will usually have a bullish alternate for which I always want a plan in place, because they play out often in this market.
After reviewing all this data, if there is no clear consensus on a larger degree path then I don’t make any changes to my plans and I stay long my growth portfolio and start trading shorter timeframes.”
Finally, I just want to remind everyone to “@Lou” me with any questions or problems. I am here to make your EWT experience as smooth and valuable to you as possible. Please feel free to ask any (related or unrelated) questions in the comments. Otherwise, have a very nice weekend!
