In Case You Missed It: Avi's Friday Video & More ... Week Ending Fri Oct 16th, 2026

In Case You Missed It…  (See below for a link to Ryan's monthly public Crypto webinar)

NDX sold down 5.5% this week. SPX sold down 2%. IWM sold down 3%. And the Dow 30 was up 0.5%. Tech stocks were clearly at the epicenter of the sell-off, a lot of which happened on Friday. Friday was also a monthly options expiration date. Volume was near average this week with very low volume to start the week and high volume to end the week. As bearish as this week seemed, NDX is back in the sideways range it tried to break out of last week: (notice we have moderately strong support approx. 1000 points below current price)

SPX managed to remain inside its higher, more recent, price range:

The Gamma Threshold level held steady in the 7740 spx region. Last week’s long gamma regime was short-lived, just like every other long or short gamma regime in 2026. We closed short gamma. It remains to be seen if that holds into next week. Importantly, liquidity was sufficient this week, though it struggled just a little on Friday when intraday realized volatility rose slightly above 10%. Market makers did not run for the hills today. Intraday realized variance getting above 10% convincingly is usually the first sign that short gamma regime will have legs. It will be one of the main indicators I watch for clues next week. (Learn more about the GT level here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/gamma-optimizer/Understanding-the-GT-level-202012076573537.html.)

Volatility

The VIX index closed at 19.99, well above the 14.5 – 17 range it was happy with for much of 2026. VolChart.io shows that the VIX futures term structure curve has risen dramatically (and inverted) in the near term compared to last week. Notably, the back end of the curve is unchanged from last week. It appears options dealers and SPX players are expecting the possibility of a volatility event in the near term.

This may look ominous, especially considering the month and Monday’s date but please try to tune out that retail news. I am focused on the wave counts.

Where are we in the count?

Here is the 60min SPX chart from Mike’s Friday afternoon Market Update in the Flagship Service:

Mike wrote,

“With today's sharp drop, the risk of the market having already put in a top in the larger diagonal off of the June 9th low has certainly increased. We are currently testing the lower end of the key support zone for the potential wave b, as I am showing in white on the SPX chart. However, if we continue to push lower over the weekend and early next week, then we will have confirmation that we have indeed topped in all of the diagonal off of the June lows.

For now, I will be keeping a very close eye on the 7585 level below, which represents the 76.4% retracement level from the move up off of the September 16th low. If that breaks, it will further increase the odds that we have put in a top. Final confirmation would come with a break under the 7504 low, which represents the bottom of the wave (iv) of the diagonal.”

Those are your levels. Note that Mike did not say a top is in. Mike said the risks of that have increased and we are at support. What that says to me is that there is a possible trade to the long side: for if we bottom in wave b, we should rally. And if we are heading lower, we should have a bounce up from here. When more than one count argues for the same directional move in the near term, I love to take those trades. We will know a lot more early next week.

To highlight the point, here is Mike’s 60min NQ chart, posted to the Flagship Service at Friday’s close:

Metals & Miners:

The metals complex charts have been evolving quickly. I, and other analysts, are still invested. I have about 45% of my intended capital for this trade now invested, even with a lower low on the table.

The best and foremost way to get caught up on the metals complex is to watch Avi’s SECOND Weekly Video this week, which he put out on Friday morning in the Flagship Service, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10404534. I am placing this link in the metals section, but Avi also goes over equities, including IWM, the dollar, bonds, and oil. If you only do one piece of homework this weekend, this video should be it.

ICYMI – Crypto/Bitcoin Public Webinar

Ryan’s public cryptocurrency webinar is happening this morning. This link brings you to the following post: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10403990.

ICYMI – Big Banks and the Federal Reserve

Avi on Thursday posted his latest SaferBankingResearch article to the Beginners Circle, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10402984. Avi takes a look at the balance sheet of the Fed and reviews some of the foundational cracks we are seeing in the larger banks.

ICYMI – Dividend investing and Market Downturns

Will Barton explains some of the benefits of dividend investing in an article he posted to the Flagship Service on Thursday, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10403069. Their “Income Method” consists of living off of your income so that retirees do not have to sell any shares of stock when the market is down to fund their lifestyle.

Have a restful weekend everyone. While I do expect a bounce at some point soon, I don’t expect next week to be boring.