Bitcoin: Price Action Like a Knuckle-Ball

Bitcoin: Price Action like a Knuckle-Ball

The ongoing consolidation between $60k-$74k that's persisted for the past 6 weeks offers no clarity or reliable near term path. 

From last week's article: 

..."I noted that Bitcoin needed to retake the $74k level, roughly the April 2025 low, on a sustained basis to provide some decent confidence of a low in place, or at least one that can sustain for multiple weeks."

I also noted: 

As has been noted in previous updates, Bitcoin spends a lot of time within corrective action faking out both directions before continuing on in its larger path. The key here now, as always, is to not miss the forest for the trees. Furthermore, there's nothing happening on smaller timeframes that warrants a good risk / reward trade with a clear near term direction.

As such, I'll reiterate that price has not cleared significant resistance, ie, Bitcoin has not retaken the April 2025 lows, with a clear break...back above $74k. As such, though some micro 5 wave bounces may develop, I would lean towards treating them as untrustworthy for providing followthrough at this point, until lower lows below the February low print and Bitcoin can re-attempt a larger bounce. This is not to say that I would be betting on immediate further downside here per se or betting against further upside. It's just not a high enough probability scenario here to be viewed as a shorter term trade setup. 

As more price actions develops, this region accumulates more complexity. While this is not something that's intrinsically captured inside of Elliott Wave Analysis, which is most predictive in trending action, consolidations have a propensity to follow some different dynamics, almost like the unpredictable and erratic movement of a knuckle ball

Often times after such regions develop sideways price action for an elongated period of time, without a clear advance or decline, their conclusion begins with a failed breakout or failed breakdown at one end of the region followed by a violent move in the opposite direction. Note the particulars of January's consolidation in the graphic below. (The orange circle captures the sideways consolidation and the red "pin" shows the brief failed breakout attempt.)

This is why I'm intent to use the language of a "clear" or "sustained" breakout above $74k as a necessary condition for establishing an intermediate low in place. If instead, price attempts another move above the 3/4 high but is quickly rejected, the odds of breakdown to new lows (below $60k) increase. Also, even though I've considered $55k as the reasonable target for a lower low in this drop from the October 2025 all-time high, given such a protracted consolidation, I would not rule out prospects of a bigger extension to the downside and my next target support region below the $52k-$55k region is the $44k-$49k region.

I'm going to forgo a near term Elliott Wave Count this week as there's no interpretation that I can come up with that plainly and reliably captures the "anything goes" movements in this price range.

From last week: Regarding the larger degree, all of this is still complete noise as Bitcoin works out whether this drop from the all-time high has completed yet for an initial corrective drop within the black count or all of the pullback within the increasingly unfavorable blue count