Bitcoin: Micro Invalidation and no clear low in place

Bitcoin: Micro Invalidation and no clear low in place

In the previous update, I noted that Bitcoin needed to retake the $74k level, roughly the April 2025 low, on a sustained basis to provide some decent confidence of a low in place, or at least one that can sustain for multiple weeks. It was additionally noted that price formed a 5 wave micro impulsive bounce from the 2/12 low into the 2/15 high and thus, so long as that 2/12 low, $65.1k was holding, tentative expectations were for further upside to develop. 

Instead, price broke down last weekend after the deep retrace over the previous days was unable to hold. So far the decline reached a low of $62.5k on 2/24 before providing a large but corrective three wave bounce into the 2/25 high, around $70k. The subsequent action has filled in another 3 wave decline into the weekend's low around $63k, followed by a bounce into Saturday's high that's possibly 5 up but has cleared no resistance.

As has been noted in previous updates, Bitcoin spends a lot of time within corrective action faking out both directions before continuing on in its larger path. The key here now, as always, is to not miss the forest for the trees. Furthermore, there's nothing happening on smaller timeframes that warrants a good risk / reward trade with a clear near term direction.

As such, I'll reiterate that price has not cleared significant resistance, ie, Bitcoin has not retaken the April 2025 lows, with a clear break (let alone any break) back above $74k. As such, though some micro 5 wave bounces may develop, I would lean towards treating them as untrustworthy for providing followthrough at this point, until lower lows, below the February low print and Bitcoin can re-attempt a larger bounce. This is not to say that I would be betting on immediate further downside here per se or betting against further upside. It's just not a high enough probability scenario here to be viewed as a shorter term trade setup. 

Within an intermediate timeframe I continue to view Bitcoin as within a larger correction of the rally from the 2018 and 2022 lows and I do not see any good evidence that indicates the next larger bullish swing to new all time highs has begun.

In the more immediate term, given all the details above, I slightly favor more downside to new lows targeting at least $59k with an outside potential of heading directly down to retest the August 2024 lows around $49.2k in a potential capitulation spike. However, should price move back above the 2/25 high, $70k~ we may see Bitcoin re-attempt the larger C wave bounce that was incorrectly forecasted in the last update.

Lastly, regarding the larger degree. My primary expectation remains that price is completing (or has completed) the initial Primary A wave of a larger pullback from the all-time highs. Key Fibonacci support at the large degree is $19k-$60k and supposing that price is only completing the the initial move down, I slightly prefer that BTC will eventually test the lower end of support, in the 19k-34k region after a prospective bounce up to $95k+. That said, especially if a lower low is seen, should price provide an impulsive rally from new lows, We may possibly consider a terminus to the bear market from the October 2025 all-time high. 

Regarding the prospective rally to $170k for one more high from the 2022 low: That still remains a prospect but the longer this pullback persists and the deeper it get, the more outlandish that prospect becomes. For now, I'm maintaining it on my chart as an alternative and so long as no sustained break below $55k develops, I'll consider keeping it displayed.