Bitcoin: Complexity - Market Analysis for Apr 13th, 2026

Bitcoin: Complexity

In last week's article, the favored path entailed a rally up past $71k to complete a circle b of B: "What's favored for the coming week is for price to head up to test the upper resistance on the 1 hour chart in the $71.5k-$73.3k zone for circle b of B."

Now that price is pushing past the noted target, we have an uptick in uncertainty here between the various paths. The simplest path remains the wider B wave entailing a pullback to $62k-$63k as that's still intact albeit with a higher circle b than ideal. That said, the micro structure is not cleanly in accord with the black count's path considering that the rally up from the 3/29 low can now count as a potential 5 up as shown in purple. Unfortunately this does not quite square well with the higher timeframe. It's too big for a wave circle i of C to be likely as the entire C of (A) is expected to target $79k with a potential to reach as high as $84k. If we have 5 up here completing as the initial rally of a C wave, I'd be inclined to look at this scenario as fulfilling the higher degree (C) wave as this potential wave 1 entails a 2-3-4-5 which would likely reach $94k+ which is the .618 retrace of the decline from the all-time high.

The blue count would allow for a more direct completion of C of (A) into the noted $79k-$84k zone and would entail another circle iv-v higher. Our former resistance for circle b of B, $71k-$73k is now support for more direct upside continuation in the C of (A), specifically, wave circle iv support.

Lastly the black count will need a pretty immediate impulsive downturn back through Sunday's low at $70.5k. Even if this does occur we won't really be able to cleanly distinguish this from the purple count which has support in the $68k-$71k zone.

In this stance I'm relatively neutral between the different micro paths. Given the current momentum, direct upside continuation is reasonable so long as upper support is holding, $71K-$73K. Should price break $70.5k without continuing up to the $79k target we'll need to evaluate the structure of the decline to distinguish between the black and purple counts.

On the larger degree, this bullish development, ie, price moving up back to the March highs has dramatically reduced the odds of an immediately lower low below the February bottom. As such, price continues to follow the Primary path, ie, filling in the large Primary B wave bounce. The question at this point is whether it fills it in more directly or whether price can stay mired in the the wider (A)-(B)-(C) as per the black / blue counts.

Without a lower low below February bottom, I see little chances of this rally heading up more directly to new all-time highs.