Bitcoin: And Another Bites The Dust

Bitcoin: And Another Bites The Dust:

"Another what?" you might ask. Another micro count. Last week, a micro count for an immediate decline was presented in black which required Bitcoin to maintain below the 2/25 high around $70k. The other immediate count, displayed in purple, showed a possible path up to $77k+ from the 2/24 low. First, price broke the 2/25 high and then continued up through the 2/8 high providing the first evidence of potential continuation up from the February low. However, those news highs above the 2/8, $72,240 levels proved to be a very short lived print as price was rejected and is now on the brink of failure to get another 5th wave high to the $77k region. 

From 3/1 "In the previous update, I noted that Bitcoin needed to retake the $74k level, roughly the April 2025 low, on a sustained basis to provide some decent confidence of a low in place, or at least one that can sustain for multiple weeks."

I also noted: 

As has been noted in previous updates, Bitcoin spends a lot of time within corrective action faking out both directions before continuing on in its larger path. The key here now, as always, is to not miss the forest for the trees. Furthermore, there's nothing happening on smaller timeframes that warrants a good risk / reward trade with a clear near term direction.

As such, I'll reiterate that price has not cleared significant resistance, ie, Bitcoin has not retaken the April 2025 lows, with a clear break (let alone any break) back above $74k. As such, though some micro 5 wave bounces may develop, I would lean towards treating them as untrustworthy for providing followthrough at this point, until lower lows, below the February low print and Bitcoin can re-attempt a larger bounce. This is not to say that I would be betting on immediate further downside here per se or betting against further upside. It's just not a high enough probability scenario here to be viewed as a shorter term trade setup. 

The above text is perfectly characteristic of the action since 3/1. Price first took out the immediate downside setup, providing hope of a more sustained advance. Now, in today's action, Bitcoin is barely holding onto that setup and I see zero reason to trust that Bitcoin will followthrough higher. Immediate support for wave circle iv (now shown in green just to track this increasingly far-fetched potential) was $67.6k-$70.6k. A sustained break below $66.1k will more strongly favor failure of this count and the invalidation actualizes if price breaks back below the 2/28 low at $63k. Additionally, the micro structure of the rejection from the 3/4 high appears increasingly impulsive but I'll once again caution against trusting any micro setups within this region between the February low and the April 2025 low, $60k-$74k.

Given all the three wave, incomplete patterned, corrective action in this region, I can't cleanly discern between the probability of a wider B wave, shown in purple, on this week's micro chart or immediate breakdown to new lows targeting the $55k region. 

Should price form a complete impulse down from Wednesday's high and rally back up to the $69k-$71k region correctively, that could constitute a i-ii setup to the downside for an extension lower. I'd be slightly more inclined to trust such a setup because it's to the downside in a context where price has been unable to retake any key resistance but I still could not convey this as a high confidence tradable setup given the italicized text above.

Regarding the larger degree, all of this is still complete noise as Bitcoin works out whether this drop from the all-time high has completed yet for an initial corrective drop within the black count or all of the pullback within the increasingly unfavorable blue count