Bitcoin: All Routes Are Still Available
By
Jason Appel
Bitcoin: All routes are still available
With little movement in the past week, this update will be brief.
In last week's article the micro routes were updated for the proposed activity in the coming weeks. Though price did push to a slightly higher high, finally reaching the ideal $79k target for the (A) up, nothing has substantively changed.
The primary analysis entails a completion of the initial portion of an expected 3 wave corrective rally from the February low, ie, the (A) wave, and thus the current decline is being viewed as a (B) wave within the larger Primary B wave. Support for a prospective bottoming in (B) falls between $65k-$73k. My expectation is that Bitcoin can fill in a multi-week pullback / consolidation to fill in the (B) into support before turning up in (C) to ideally test the larger .618 retrace, $94k~ up to the mid-January highs around $98k.
The nearest alternative is shown in purple is rather suggestive of a similar outcome but would entail a smaller less time consuming pullback for this current decline / consolidation from the current April high.
Though not favored, until price breaks $74.8k, I can't rule out another possible higher high as an extension in the (A) up.
As for the prospective bullish leading diagonal: That remains in the same status, ie, possible but a low probability interpretation and the support for iv within that diagonal is well overlapped with (B) wave support for the primary black count. As such, the preference is for a deeper (B) down to the $65k zone but if price only musters a pullback to $70k or so, all routes would retain their viability.
From last week: In terms of the larger degree, there are no changes to the expectations. That is to say the primary path still entails a larger corrective rally off the Feb lows is in progress, which is expected to fail in the $94k-$104k zone, followed by a devastating Primary C wave down to the $19k-$34k zone to find a very long term bottom before the next multi-year bullish cycle begins.
