Bitcoin: 2026 Roadmap update

Bitcoin: 2026 Roadmap update

For the past few weeks since the February low, the focus of these articles ,regarding the lower timeframe patterns, has been the prospect of breaking out of the multi-week consolidation and retaking the $74k level.

In this past week, price briefly broke out of the consolidation, clearing $74k~, reaching an intraday high of $76k on Monday night. But once again, as we've seen a few times this year in consolidation patterns, the break out was very short lived and failed to sustain; further advance has been stalled at least for now with the quick rejection back into the range that's defined most of the price action since the February low.

The bounce above $74k however is too high to still consider a more immediate decline to lower lows as a strong threat. Though I can not rule it out, the interpretation where price heads to more immediate lows below $60k entails the bounce from the February low as a wave 4 (shown in red) and this bounce has come too high and is too protracted to consider a wave 4 as a very reasonable interpretation of the price action. Also, this bounce from the February low is too small of a retrace of the decline from the all-time high to reasonably consider it all of the Primary B wave as per the Weekly chart. As such, what's favored as an initial A of (A) of Primary B. 

Whether the red or the black count plays out on the smaller timeframes, both portend a top of sorts in place at the 3/16 high and one that's not to be retested until a test of lower support for B in the $63.6k-$65.8k region. 

On the micro level, price has what counts best as 3 waves down from the 3/16, $76k high. However, the decline is potentially impulsive which would actualize if Bitcoin maintains resistance this weekend / early next week and then heads down to a lower low for wave (v) in red on the micro chart. Immediate resistance for lower lows in this micro pattern ranges up to $71,450 and I'll want to see price resoundingly clear $72k without a lower low (below the $68.7k, 3/19 low) to more confidently signal that the circle a of B has bottomed. However, even if price is able to retake $72k as is the tentative expectation within the primary forecast, such a bounce is favored to be rejected below the 3/16 high with resistance for circle b of B in the $73k-$74k region. Assuming the $73k-$74k region is reached but contains any further advance, my expectation is for a downturn in price to test the $63.6k-$65.8k region in the B wave.

Regarding the larger degree ramifications of the recent weeks: given the increasingly likelihood of an intermediate bottom in place and a subsequent corrective rally, the blue count entailing a more immediate run to new all-time highs has become very far-fetched. Instead, my forecast for 2026 is a choppy year with a slight uptrend for the next 3-6 months as price fills in a bigger corrective bounce before heading down in the Primary C wave which I don't anticipate until Q4 2026 at the earliest. All that said, Crypto is a wildly volatile space. The price forecasts have been reasonably solid but I would not overly rely on the timing aspects. That is to say, I'm still looking at $19k-$34k as major bull market support that's likely to be tested before a run up to $1M but the drop to that region does not have to take until mid-2027 to develop.