A Warning About An Issue Other Than Trade

Do not ignore the rising hostilities and attacks on shipping and pipelines that have the fingerprints of Iran. The Strait of Hormuz could get ugly over the coming weeks which could overshadow the trade issues...

Attacks on four oil tankers off the Strait of Hormuz this week and a drone attack on a Saudi pipeline. The trade issues tempered the response by the oil market, but there is a clear and present danger of a continuation of these events in the region. The Brent-WTI spread is at its highest level since November. Risk-off may not come from trade, it may come from the most politically turbulent region in the world!