Still stuck in a 4th wave?

The SPX meandered lower this morning before bouncing, but did not produce a clean and convincing 5 waves down from today's high. Therefore, while it is possible to get a leading diagonal out of the structure, we do not have a confirmed top yet to this bounce off yesterday's low. Given the messy structure, support and resistance levels will likely be the best indication of how the rest of the pattern plays out from here.

A break above today's high would confirm that this bounce has not completed, and would likely yield a move up to test resistance between 1953.75 - 1961 SPX next. If seen, the bounce can still count as a 4th wave in the red count, but would likely be as one higher degree 4th (wave (iv) of c in red instead of wave iv of (iii) of c).

Otherwise, a sustained break below 1917.50 ES overnight (1925.70 SPX) would open the door to immediate downside follow through again as the start of red wave v of (iii) targeting 1880 - 1867 SPX next, with confirmation below today's low.

$SPX - Micro - Jan-12 1342 PM (1 hour)
$SPX - Micro - Jan-12 1342 PM (1 hour)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.