Path to a new swing low has been cleared

Equities fell sharply lower today, taking the immediate downside path under the red count as a possible 3rd wave off the September high. Under the red count, we are already in a C-wave down to a new swing low, with price in wave (iii) of iii of that C-wave. If that count is correct, then red wave (iii) of iii should stretch all the way to ~1840 ES before completing and setting up a corrective bounce as wave (iv) of iii back to 1865 - 1882 ES.

However, there is potential support at 1866 ES that price must contend with first, which happens to be the last chance for any near-term bullish potential under the blue count. If this corrective B-wave off the August low is not actually complete yet, we really should not see a sustained break below that support. Before trading under the bullish expectation of the blue count though, I recommend waiting for resistance above at last week's low (1897.25 ES) to be taken out in impulsive fashion. Otherwise, pressure remains down in the red count until we see evidence of the contrary.

ES Z5 - Micro - Sep-28 1326 PM (1 hour)
ES Z5 - Micro - Sep-28 1326 PM (1 hour)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.