On the cusp of breaking out?

While not a confirmed breakout just yet, equities are trying to follow the script so far for a strong rally from here into next month in our expected 3rd wave. Price has yet to take out the February high so far, but if we do see a sustained break above there, I think that we will likely see price head to 2138 - 2140 (SPX) next as wave 3 of iii shown on my chart. This should be accompanied by a higher reading on the MACD than the previous peaks in April for even better confirmation.

In order to maintain the expectation above though, I do not want to see price fall back below 2110 (SPX) at this point. Should price reverse tomorrow and break below that level, it would put an immediate breakout into question, and suggest that more consolidation is needed in either blue wave 2 or the larger degree ii. Above 2110, and I will continue to look higher from here.

$SPX - Micro - Apr-23 1317 PM (30 min)
$SPX - Micro - Apr-23 1317 PM (30 min)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.