Near-term setup for higher

After holding a corrective ABC flat after the opening high on Sunday night into the pre-market low, futures traded higher today as suggested would be the likely outcome this morning. However, the move into today's RTH high subdivides clearly as only a micro 3 waves, which means that if price is filling out a measured move C-wave higher, it will likely be as an ending diagonal structure.

Under that assumption, today's high is where wave (1) of the ED should have completed, with price now consolidating in wave (2) of the ED. So far price has already retraced enough to consider wave (2) complete at the .500 retrace, but has room down to the .618 retrace at 2972.25 if still needed.

Otherwise, any breakout above today's high will be assumed to be wave (3) of the ED filling out, with 2995 - 3007 as the overall target for the entire ending diagonal C-wave to reach before completing. A break back below the pre-market low made this morning at 2964.50 would be needed to invalidate this setup and open the door to anything more immediately bearish at this time.

ES Z19 - Micro - Sep-30 1258 PM (15 min)
ES Z19 - Micro - Sep-30 1258 PM (15 min)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.