Fell Shy of Target, But Upside May Not Be Done Yet

The market started off very strong this morning during the pre-market session, clearing last week's high and attempting to reach toward the 3800 target cited in yesterday's market update. However, price then proceeded to roll back over right after the open, never quite reaching that ideal target.

At this point, it is beginning to look like the morning high completed a slightly smaller than expected (c)-wave, and price is now filling out at least the next higher degree b-wave pullback. Under that expectation, there is room for more near-term downside before a b-wave pullback completes, with 3670 - 3605 as the standard .382 - .618 retrace support. A clearly corrective pullback into that support range will allow us to continue looking higher, with the expectation for price to turn back up in another measured move c-wave again.

However, any impulsive break of 3605 would be a strong warning sign that a corrective bounce off last week's low has already completed in its entirety, likely as green wave iv of C, and price intends to head directly toward new lows as green wave v of C.

ES Z22 - Micro - Oct-18 1225 PM (1 hour)
ES Z22 - Micro - Oct-18 1225 PM (1 hour)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.