Can The Market Manage One More High Before Year-End?

The market traded lower today, heading down to test support that should tell us if another high in this pattern is still possible, or if odds will now shift in favor of a top already in place.

For another high to remain a reasonable probability, price should hold between here and 2651 ES as a 4th wave within the larger 5th off last week's low. Assuming support does hold, then wave 5 of v can target the next fib above at 2682.75 ES before putting in a top. A move back above 2664 ES would be the initial indication of a local low in place and the start of wave 5 of v.

Otherwise, a sustained break below 2651 ES starts to shift odds in favor off a top already in place, and the 5th wave off last week's low being complete. This would then turn our attention toward last week's low as the next level of support to break in order to begin looking for a larger correction that can take price back near the August low again.

ES H18 - Micro - Dec-14 1230 PM (1 hour)
ES H18 - Micro - Dec-14 1230 PM (1 hour)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.