Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Are We Topping?

As we came into this week, the expectation for the SPX was for higher before this [c] wave of what we are counting as a b-wave corrective rally completed. And, as I write this update, I am seeing us in the final squiggles of the 5th wave of that [c] wave.I have included the 5-minute ES chart in this update so you can see that I think we still may be seeing one more iv-v before this 5th wave of the [c] wave completes. And, more often than not, we see wave iv overlap wave i in this structure, as this 5th wave seems to be taking shape as an ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Just A Micro Mess

I wish I had some wonderful insight to provide you this evening. Alas, the market is not being terribly compliant with allowing me to do that.Starting with the GDX 8-minute chart, we are seeing a lot of overlap, which still leaves both potentials on the chart. Until we take out the 35 region, we still leave the door open for a deeper wave [ii], as presented by the blue count. And, the reason it is hard to distinguish it from the green count is because the green count is a leading diagonal, with its own issues of overlap. But, over 35, then I have to adopt the green count.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

No Confirmation Of A Top Just Yet

Today the market opened lower but quickly retraced most of those early losses and is trading just about flat at the time of this writing. WIth the move back up off of the lows the entire wave structure to the downside does look corrective in nature. Furthermore, we are still over even the upper most support levels which is still suggesting that we may still need another higher high before any sort of larger degree top is seen. Drilling down to the smaller degree charts I still am watching the 5145-5119 zone below as key upper support that will need to break to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed put in a top.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

IWM Hit The Target

With IWM hitting its target on the 3-minute chart, it now places me on high alert. So, I want to post something I sent out in an alert today:“I want to remind everyone that the SPX and IWM are in two difference counts. We are tracking the SPX as a b-wave, and the structure is supportive of that count. And, that applies even if we do make a higher high - remember the b-wave which topped right before Covid!?!?As far as the IWM, that cannot make a higher high or it invalidates the wave count we are tracking there. And, since it is lagging, it is still well within expectations for this 2nd wave bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Time To Be On Alert

Over the weekend, I provided you with a [c] wave structure on the 3-minute IWM chart which suggested that we still need a 4-5 before that potentially completes. With the market pushing higher today, it makes me consider that the 4th wave has potentially completed, even though we did not see the standard overlap in waves 4 and 1 within a diagonals.But, I am still going to leave the door open for that 4-5 as long as we do not reach the minimum target we normally see for a 5th wave in an ending diagonal, which is the bottom of the box on the 3-minute chart, at the 1.618 extension.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Looking For Another Rally

As Mike has been outlining, the smaller degree structure is a bit unclear. And, that is often typical of b-wave or corrective structures. In fact, I can probably outline 4/5 different ways to count the smaller degree structure outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.Yet, all my analysis can be summed up by the following statement: As long as the market continues to hold the lower support box on the 5-minute chart, I am going to continue to look higher to test the resistance box overhead.In the meantime, as least so far, the rally is starting to take shape as a potential [c] wave rally. So, for now, I am still going to look higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still No Clear Evidence Of A Bottom In Metals

While we are certainly in the region from which I can reasonably expect a bottom to be struck, I still have no clear indications that a bottom has indeed been struck. I am seeking a clear 5-wave rally off a low, and none has become evident just yet.Meanwhile, as I have noted in the alerts I posted in the trading room over the last day or so, GLD is still holding over its 208 region support, which has me on alert for a 5-wave rally to begin.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Have We Put In A B Wave Bottom?

After moving lower yesterday we saw the market move up sharply after the FMOC announcement and we are still sitting near the highs at the time of this writing. While this is certainly opening the door for a bottom of the wave (b) to be in place we still are not out of the woods just yet and will need to push through a few more levels of resistance to confirm that we are indeed pushing higher in a larger wave (c) of b.Drilling down to the five minute chart we can see that the SPX is currently testing the 76.4 retrace level of the move down off of the 5123 high.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Wave b may not be done yet...

The market started off the session initially higher this morning, but failed to follow through much beyond the progress already made into Friday's high. Price has since rolled over into the close, so far leaving us shy of reaching the ideal fib target for wave (c) of b at 5189 as the .618 retrace and measured move fib where wave (a)=(c).Therefore, I think it reasonable to consider that the high made this morning finished just wave iii of (c), and the pullback since is wave iv of (c).

by Garrett Patten - 2 weeks ago

Retrace Higher Still Underway?

Today the market opened sharply lower only to see a fairly sharp reversal in the afternoon session. The case could be made that the reversal up off of the lows is a micro five wave move which is what we would need to see to suggest we are going to push higher in the wave (c) of the larger wave b per the purple count on the charts. As long as we can hold over micro support we still have the setup in place to push higher to finish off the larger wave b before turning down once again.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

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