Liquidity UpdateDuring the worst part of March, I began a series of liquidity updates to provide info about forced selling pressure on assets (stocks, bonds, gold, etc). Due to the global USD shortage, margin pressure, and other things, there were clear signs of forced selling pressure back then. It was bad enough not only to affect stocks, but also gold and long-duration Treasuries (and for Treasuries, that's very rare). I reduced those updates as liquidity became more abundant. This week, however, renewed some (but not all) of the issues.
Investors have flocked into mega-cap growth tech names as well as stocks like Tesla (TSLA). On the other hand, traditionally cyclical stocks like industrials and banks have been left for dead. The divergence may be getting a little stretched, however.
Cisco (CSCO) stock is pretty interesting at current prices. The technical/sentiment analysis has been a bit mixed between our Elliott Wave analysts, but I think solid fundamentals represent a reasonable tiebreaker here. Count me in the long-term bullish camp.
This recent sell-off may present a large number of buying opportunities, but some of the core indices (and most of the stocks within them) may still have considerable room to fall before this is over, even if it may not be in a continued straight line.
I have a long-term bullish outlook on India as part of a diversified portfolio, but there is one main thing holding me back from being quite as bullish as I am on, say, Russia. And that is India’s heavy reliance on oil imports, which damages its current account and continually weakens its currency.
I added a combination of gold, silver, gold miners, and gold royalty companies to my model portfolio in my November 2018 newsletter issue (with an overweight emphasis on the royalties), and have been buying ever since, through dips and peaks.
In addition to my primary focus on measuring value in various asset classes, regions, and stocks, an additional and unusual place I like to look for signs of exuberance is in the world of Closed End Funds, or “CEFs”.
The ICOW ETF is probably the most interesting in my view, because the financial sector has been my biggest concern with the ex-US developed world for the past few years. This vehicle provides a potential way to gain that exposure for those that want it without the bank and insurance companies in those regions.
Decades of evidence show that cheaper markets tend to outperform expensive markets over the long-term. It’s a hard thing to do in practice, and feels painful during some years, but allocating capital to regions around the world that are cheap and out of favor historically works very well.
I’ve been watching Church & Dwight (CHD) for a while now, because it’s one of my favorite consumer staples stocks. But the sector is looking rather stretched, and Church & Dwight is not much of an exception.
Our final in a series of articles about the retail industry focuses on Kohl’s (KSS), which reported earnings today and dropped by about 7% to about $45/share. It is potentially a deep value opportunity, but one that comes with considerable risk.
Earlier this month, I wrote a broad overview of the struggling retail industry, where I discussed the various problems affecting certain retail companies, including Tapestry (TPR), whose stock is down 20% after reporting earnings today.
Vanguard’s newer International Dividend Appreciation ETF (ticker: VIGI) is an international ETF I like a lot going forward as part of a diversified portfolio. It invests in international companies that have at least 7 years of consecutive annual dividend growth.
The retail industry is a mess right now, but investors should think of it less as online vs physical retail at this point and start thinking in terms of which omnichannel retailers will survive over the next decade.
Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) is starting to look interesting from a valuation standpoint. I’m about to move it from my watch list to my active portfolio to begin dollar-cost averaging into it with a small position.
Invesco is the 13th largest asset manager in the world and offers a variety of products for passive and active investors. They operate the popular QQQ ETF and a variety of factor-based ETF strategies. I particularly like their lead in equal-weight strategies.
Russia has a lot of problems. They have severe concentration of wealth due to corruption and oligopolistic aspects to their economy. Growth is slow and population levels are stagnant. And yet their stock market is on fire lately.
What I love about EW is you know when things go wrong and you know when to get out of a position at minimal damage...it has helped so much in my RR work
""Kenneth_Aydt" - Trading Room" - 2019-10-03
The relief of EWT philosophy on investing has been such a gift (besides being extremely profitable) that I have to say this is the most enjoyable service offered anywhere on the internet and probably the best investment I have ever made. Thanks Avi.
""Talapus" - Trading Room" - 2020-01-27
My 401K money has been protected during this, and I'm making money in little chunks in my trading accounts. And that is all thanks to Avi, HD, Garrett, Zac, and so many great members here. Sincerely, my account and my family say a huge THANK YOU to you all.
""Franchise"" - Trading Room2020-03-16
After this week's action and watching how Avi & company nailed the piss out of so many moves, you can't argue with me anymore about the efficacy of EW. . . Just amazing to have a methodology that works so well PLUS the guidance from Avi.
""Bcindc"" - Seeking Alpha2020-03-09
I honestly don't know how anyone loses money on this site. You guys have the closest thing to a crystal ball I've ever seen.
""joneil" - Trading Room" - 2020-09-23
I will say this about this site and the crew in general:
It is one of the most cohesive, cooperative and harmonious "work" groups I have ever experienced.
Everyone's dedication is exemplary, above and beyond the call of duty. The leadership is outstanding.
All the trading and money making aside, it is a true pleasure to be here. I haven't even talked about the quality of the analysis. That, I think speaks for itself. OUTSTANDING!
""Nanook" - Trading Room" - 2018-11-08
When it comes to navigating the markets, I feel like I was driving with a blindfold on before finding EWT.
""bryanjf1" - Trading Room" - 2020-08-07
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""Blue Chip Investing"" - Seeking Alpha2020-04-12
Avi applies the most rigorous application of Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis that I have seen. Add to that the invention of Fibonacci Pinball, a simple and elegant Fibonacci extension theory that I haven't seen anywhere else. It provides an almost eerie sense of direction once a second wave is identified.
""ChillyD" - Trading Room" - 2020-06-30
Top ticks, bottom ticks. Not sure if EWT has enough power to move the market just yet or bigger money is following these world class analyst. Sure is a pleasure to be in company of such great analysts.