Will The Setup Trigger?

While I am still uncertain as to whether the SPX can see a higher high before this b-wave has completed, I would say that the IWM is just about fully cooked in its downside set up.

While it is still possible that wave ii has further machinations, as long as we remain below the 149/150 resistance in he IWM, the immediate pressure remains to the downside.  In fact, we have enough waves in place now for a 3rd wave to begin in earnest to the downside.

As I highlighted several times before, we now need to break down below the bottom of wave i, with follow through below the pivot to strongly suggest the market is now declining in the heart of a 3rd wave, with targets in the 139-140 region for just wave iii of 3 alone.

Most importantly, should we break down below the pivot for wave (iii) of iii of 3, the pivot then becomes our resistance for the wave (iv) bounce.  As long as this pivot is respected on that bounce, then the market should fall away towards the 139/140 region, on its way to at least the 137 region to complete the [c] wave down, but with a more preferable target in the 133/134 region, of course, depending upon extensions in wave 3 down.

Now, please remember that just because we have a set up in place does not mean we have a guaranteed decline.  We need to continually monitor our Fibonacci Pinball resistance points so that if the market does not respect a resistance point on the way down, then it is an initial signal that we may not be seeing the ideal follow through to the downside.

So, for now, the table is being set.  The question is whether we will see the follow through on this ideal downside set up being presented in the IWM.  While I can certainly tell you what to look for, I cannot tell you with certainty whether the market will choose to take the set up.

60minSPX
60minSPX
3minIWM
3minIWM
60minIWM
60minIWM
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.