The Whipsaw Continues

As the market continues to move back and forth within the same region, it is still suggesting that lower levels are still more likely than not. 

With the action over the last couple of days making it less likely that wave (ii) has completed, it seems we are now struggling with either a b-wave of wave 5 down, or if the market is even going to try to loop higher one more time for a bigger 4th wave.   Either scenario has strong potential.   But, the important perspective is that it does seem the greater likelihood is that the market still needs a 5th wave lower before this wave (ii) can be considered complete.

As I write this now, I do not have a clear 5 waves down from today’s rally high.  The reason this is important is because if the b-wave of wave 5 down has completed, then the c-wave “should” be a clean 5 wave event.  And, it would mean that wave i of that c-wave down should also be 5 waves.  So, if the market moves back up this afternoon before making a lower low, then it is telling us that we have not likely completed the b-wave or even wave 4 yet, and the lower lows we want to see may be pushed off by several more days.  But, if we do make a lower low, we can count a micro 5 waves down, which can set us up to see those lower lows even before the election.  Stay on your toes.

1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.