Stuck In Neutral With Higher To Go

While the market is still not showing any signs or set ups to make us bearish, I still think that any upside we are going to see in the coming weeks is going to be within a whipsaw pattern.

As I outlined earlier this week, if the market should rally to the 3275SPX region and then pullback from there, it would provide us with more evidence that wave (v) in blue was taking shape as an ending diagonal.  And, that would answer a lot of questions as to why we have seen so much overlap in the market of late. 

But, if the diagonal is the correct pattern, then we should see a pullback in wave 4 over the coming days towards the 3200/3220SPX region.  Of course, the market may attempt one more stab higher if wave 3 has not yet completed, but the overall pattern is still suggestive of this being an ending diagonal, which is outlined on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. 

Ultimately, it means that there will likely be a lot more whipsaw action over the coming weeks.  We should see a wave 4 pullback down towards the 3200 region, followed by a rally up over the 3300SPX region to complete wave 5 of (v) to complete wave 3 of (5) of (i) in blue, which will then be followed by another pullback towards the 3190SPX region in wave 4, which will then be followed by another rally towards the all-time highs in wave 5 of [5] of (i) to complete all of wave [i] off the March low.

So, in summary, as long as the market remains over the 3185SPX support, I am looking for more whipsaw action ultimately pointing us back up towards the all-time high to complete the blue wave [5] of wave [i] off the March low. Thereafter, we should see a wave [ii] pullback before we begin wave [iii] into 2021 taking us to 4000+.

However, if the market should provide us with an impulsive decline below 3185SPX, then we can begin to view the green count as a higher probability.  Unfortunately, as it stands right now, I am not seeing evidence of that potential just yet.  So, it keeps me in the bullish pattern towards the all time highs for now.

5minMicro
5minMicro
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.