Still Hard To Be Bearish

The market has not followed through on any bearish set up we have seen during this 5 week choppy pattern higher. 

As I have noted several times in the trading room, the overlapping nature higher over the last 5 weeks does not lend itself to a high probability SHORT TERM perspective.  You see, the overlapping pattern can be a 4th wave running flat, or even triangle, as we had back in 2013, or it can be completing a bigger ending diagonal for wave 3 of (iii), or it can be a b-wave in the y-wave of wave 4.  So, unfortunately, until the market resolves these issues in this region, it is hard to come up with a solid and short term reliable wave count in the region.

My preference is still to maintain below the resistance box, and see a pullback, potentially re-testing our upper support region.  But, the bears have shown us they have no teeth for quite some time, so I would not recommend trading for such a drop aggressively.

Most of you should be focusing on buying opportunities should we actually see that pullback to the upper support region.  Remember, the greater probabilities still suggest we are still in a much larger bull market with much higher targets to achieve. So, trying to counter-trend trade within a strongly trending market is never good for your account.  It is always more advisable to remain with the trend, and look for opportunities on pullbacks.

For now, micro support is at the 2281ES level, and as long as we remain over that level, we only have a 3 wave pullback, which can support a bullish count to test our resistance region overhead.  We would need to break that level to even consider follow through to the downside.

1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.