Micro Count Still Needs To Be Resolved

For the last several weeks I have been harping upon the 2108ES level as a determination point for the market.  We need to see where the market stops over that level to be able to identify the micro count much more clearly.

Basically, the problem we now encounter is that the 2108ES region represents the 1.236 extension within a potential 3rd wave up.  That is ordinarily where the wave (iii) of (3) would target.  And as long as all pullbacks maintain over the .764 extension, we would expect the market to rally to the 1.618 extension, which, in our case, is the 2035ES region. 

However, the market topped last week a little bit below the 1.236 extension, and then found support just over the .764 extension.  The question is still open if that was enough for wave (iii) and (iv) of (3) or not.  If so, we should now be on our way to AT LEAST the 2119ES level (1.382 extension), or, more appropriately, the 1.618 extension at 2035ES.  As long as this pullback maintains over 2088ES, we have a nice set up in a wave 1-2 structure to point us to the 2035ES region next.  Should we break below 2088ES, it does put some questions in my mind as to what is playing out in this region.

And, as noted over the weekend, as long as we remain over 1980ES (which I can even extend slightly lower to the .764 extension at 1975ES), we should continue looking higher to complete wave i of 3 in the 2150ES region.  The only difference is that this may push us out to the next Bradley turn date, which is around the 13th of March.  But, that does seem like a bit too much time to complete this structure.  I guess the question will depend on how much more this market wants to slow down.  And, the interesting thing about this is that would allow the market to top in wave i of 3 at one Bradley date, and then bottom in wave ii of 3 at the next Bradley date.  Something to strongly consider.

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BaseCase - 60minES
BaseCase - 60minES
BaseCase - TurnChart
BaseCase - TurnChart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.