by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Wednesday July 10th 2013
With the market unwilling to break support just yet, it is making me view the current rally as having only topped in the 3rd wave in a wave iii in the (c) wave. Since we hit the 1.236 extension of this structure today, my expectation for this potential count would be that we would not break below 1636ES - .764 extension. Assuming we hold that level, I will expect the market to rally toward s the 1669ES region to top in a wave iii in the (c) wave.
This larger pattern has me viewing the top of the yellow b-wave at either the 1674 region - 1.764 extension – or as high as the 1684ES region – 2.00 extension – before the yellow b-wave tops.
If the market does break down below the 1636ES region, the next support region is the 1625-30ES region, which, if it is held as support, would be the 4th wave in the ending diagonal for this (c) wave. But, until 1636ES breaks as support, I am not going to consider that count at this time.
Of course, we still have the potential purple count, which is look less and less likely as we hold upper support, and without a solid 5 waves down off the highs, I am not able to see that the yellow b-wave has yet topped. So, again, as long as 1636ES holds as support, I am looking for 1669ES next.
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