Is A Bottom In Place?
The action thus far has only looked corrective up without a solid impulsive move off the lows. Furthermore, the market has not even taken out the down trend channel yet.
For now, as long as the market remains below the 1640/41 resistance region cited all day, with a possible move as high as the larger Fib extension at 1643.50, there is nothing that says it is not going to try to hit our ideal target region of 1613/1617ES. In fact, the move up today can simply be an a-wave high, with a b-wave pullback in the afternoon, followed by a c-wave higher to target the 1643.50 region for wave (4).
But, with today’s low, I CAN present the end of a 5th wave down in the yellow count, with a minimum number of waves in place to complete the pattern off the highs.
So, for now, there is nothing in place that gives us a solid clue that the bottom is in, but, again, we do have the minimum number of waves needed to call it completed, even though we did not hit our preferred target level. The question one should be asking themselves is, if you are playing for lower levels, are you managing your position sizes and using appropriate risk management strategies.