Inflection Point Update

Since we are approaching a bigger inflection point, I thought this would be appropriate to send to the entire membership:

'We are now at the next inflection point for the market. And, we will have several of these should we continue to move higher.  This one may be a bit tricky.

With the corrective flat I outlined yesterday holding support, we are now heading up what can me a 5th wave off the low from last week.  Clear resistance is 2770-77.  That can represent an even more extended (a) wave in green, which has been outlined by some of the other analysts, or it can represent a bigger (i) (ii) in the FOMO count (presented in the faint darker purple), at least the way this is now developing.  Allow me to explain.

Within Fib Pinball, wave (i) of 3 will often target the .618 extension of waves 1 and 2.  However, in our case, we are now past that.  However, wave (iii) of 3 should target AT LEAST the 1.00 extension of waves 1 and 2.  We are now approaching the .764 extension, which is in between both.  Sometimes, wave (i) of 3 can target the .764 extension, but in the lesser circumstances.

That now means that if the market is heading up DIRECTLY in the FOMO count, it has to break out strongly through 2777SPX, which will raise support to 2750SPX. 

However, if the market turns down from the 2770-77SPX region, it CAN be all of the (a) wave, or it can be setting up a bigger (i)(ii) in the FOMO count.  

So, if you are trading this, if the market is developing a micro 5 wave structure that seems to be topping out in the 2770-77SPX region, then you should likely be lightening up significantly until it can prove its ability to blow through that region, with its next target at at 2800SPX for wave (iii) of 3 in the direct FOMO count.

IF we go directly to the 2800SPX region from here, and the market maintains the FOMO count stand, then it will pullback correctively back to the 2750-70SPX region in wave (iv) before heading up over 2850SPX.  

So, it would make sense to respect the 2770-77SPX region if you are trying to trade to the long side here.

2740SPX is still maintained as ideal support for right now.  But, the inability to blow through 2777SPX would suggest that we will AT LEAST see a sizable pullback, if not the top to an even more extended (a) wave.  

As you can tell, I am trying to be very cautious about further upside right now.  So, 2770-77SPX is going to be a turning point over the next 24 hours, as long as we are over 2740SPX.

5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.