How Much Lower?

With the break below 1690ES last night, the market completed what we may be able to view as a 5 wave structure off the highs.  This perspective I am maintaining as an alternative perspective at this time, and we will need to see the market heading up towards the .500 retrace region in a corrective pattern to have me viewing this potential as much more feasible.  This would take us down to a target around 1622ES, which would then give us a larger degree yellow b-wave of this 5th wave - as seen on the daily chart.  I would then expect a final rally to our 1760-1780ES target zone from that region, but, again, this is not high on the likelihood list YET.

However, with the market still holding in the 1685ES region, we could be developing a b-wave triangle which still could take another day to complete, which would then set us up for the c-wave down to the lower blue box, which would complete a larger yellow 4th wave running triangle, which I mentioned last night after I went back to the daily chart.   Again, this would explain why we did not see a standard sized 4th wave decline, as the market was developing a running triangle higher.

So, this really does mean that the 5th wave we saw overnight really has to open our minds to further downside which can happen in several ways, but it really does seem as though this is now pointing down, before we go appreciably higher to complete yellow wave 5.

 Elliott Wave Chart
 Elliott Wave Chart