by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Wednesday November 6th 2013
It is fairly simple right now. As long as 1755ES is maintained as support, this market will extend higher. The only complex question is if this rally will turn into a larger impulsive rally for wave 5 to take us to at least the 1787ES level, or will we end with an ending diagonal.
Right now, we need to see a c-wave down to be more confident in an ending diagonal, and that c-wave must hold over 1755ES. A break down below that either tells us that the 4th wave - as unbelievable as it may sound - may not yet be done, or the red count will tell us we have topped.
For now, I am not in the "already topped" camp, even though I do think we are fairly close to completing 5 waves up. So, if the market can maintain below 1772ES, and take us down in a c-wave for wave iv, we can maintain the ED status, as long as we hold support over 1755ES, and then make another high at the 1777/78ES level, which would likely be the top for that ED. A move through 1772 before such a pattern plays out means that 1787ES is our next larger target. A break down below 1755ES means either wave 4 is still ongoing, with a break of 1740ES at this time making it more likely that the red count will prevail.
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