How Do We Go Lower?

With the market breaking support, and no solid bullish set up on the chart, we clearly have to give the bears the benefit of the doubt, especially with the message they sent us yesterday.

Currently, I do not have a completed 5 wave structure down off last week's high that makes me comfortable from a technical and Fibonacci extension perspective. But, nonetheless, we do have a “valid” 5 waves down off the last week's high, and barring another drop for a 5th wave down into tomorrow, I will have no choice but to adopt that as a primary count.

But, what this count does is place me on notice for the potential triangle pattern noted in the purple count, as this is not what I would consider a highly reliable 5 wave structure off the high.

For now, as long as the market remains below the 2035-2060SPX resistance region, I am looking down, and all primary counts will be pointing down. While I do have an alternative count still listed on this chart – in yellow – I am unable to give this strong consideration unless I see a strong impulsive structure take us over 2060SPX, with confirmation through 2082SPX. That will put me on notice that our run over 2200 has begun, with the current target being over 2400 in the current set up. But, again, this bullish count is truly an alternative until it can be proven.

Lastly, a break down below 1970SPX is our next key that a 3rd wave down is taking hold, or, minimally, the final leg down in the purple (c) wave for the triangle count, both of which will likely target the 1900 region.

5minSPX
5minSPX
1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.