Has Wave iv Begun?

The simple answer to this question is “I think so.”

Right now, we have enough waves in place to consider the market as having topped out.  Moreover, I do not have any clear impulsive structure to the upside to suggest that we will see another higher high before wave iv takes us lower.  The rally we saw off the low today counts best as a 3 wave corrective rally to me.  But, in the event I am wrong, then the market will attempt reaching the 2373SPX region one more time before wave iv begins in earnest.

So, for now, I have no desire to be attempting any aggressive long-side trades.  Moreover, this wave iv can be a very frustrating, overlapping move down into our micro support region below. That is just the nature of 4th waves.  Therefore, I would imagine this wave iv can easily take us into next week before we complete it, and see a set up for wave v of 5 of (iii), which, ideally, I would still like to see into March before we see a much larger wave (iv) correction take hold.

1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.