Easy Part Is Done

With the SPX heading to our target for wave (5) of iii today, the easy part of this rally has completed. While we certainly can even still see further extensions in this wave, trading for such extensions becomes much more risky. But, I do have to note that the IWM does suggest one more extension (which can take the SPX up to 1936) should be seen before this wave iii has completed.

For now, my expectation is to see a wave iv begin shortly. A break down below 1920SPX, with follow through below 1917SPX will suggest we are heading down to the 1899SPX level for wave iv. This follows along the lines of Fibonacci Pinball which has the 1.618 extension as the ideal target for wave iii, and the 1.00 extension as the ideal target for wave iv. But, if we see further extensions, we may not drop below the 1.236 extension for wave iv.

5minSPX
5minSPX
1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.