Continue To Focus On Lower Levels

The market has not provided any meaningful bounces yet.  However, standard operating procedure suggests that the market will provide us a bounce in the not too distant future.  And, as noted last night, it may begin from lower levels, but we will still likely see a bounce.

The drop thus far has several ways in which it can be counted, and our analysts have posted several micro count potentials as to how to view this decline.  But, I think, at least for most, it will likely be somewhat counter-productive to try to trade every little squiggle in this decline, in the same manner in which I warned it may be back in April and May. 

Rather, our focus should be on seeing lower levels, with the ideal structure taking us down for a larger degree wave (2), as presented in the green count.   And, once we do see our first significant bounce, then it should provide a little more color as to how the rest of the pattern can potentially play out to lower levels, with our ideal target ultimately in the 1928-1965SPX region.

And, as noted last night, the only way I will consider to abandon expectations of lower levels is if we see an impulsive pattern taking us over last week’s high.  That would place me into the yellow count, with wave ii already having concluded.  But, I view that as a lower probability at this point in time, but clearly Imaintain an open mind to its potential, but only if proven.

1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.