by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Tuesday June 11th 2013
Amazingly, we cannot even get a simple wave ii retrace in the market. Everything seems to need to be complex. The one thing that is bothering me as to where we stand right now is that there is not good overlapping confluence points I am seeing on the downside other than the 1615/1616ES region. So, the market may yet be targeting that level into tomorrow. But, there are several ways it can chose to get there, including a higher b-wave, or even as a WXY pattern down.
The point at which the a=wave down would equal the c-wave down would be at 1613ES, so any drop below that level would get me VERY concerned about the green (5) upside potential. For those that are as nervous as I am about trading 5th waves, you can always chose to wait until waves (1) and (2) of wave iii set up before going long. And, the reason I do get nervous about 5th waves is because of the possibilities or truncation or that we are off by one degree and the 5th wave has topped at the prior top. This is why I reduce my position sizing when trading 5th waves.
So, for now, support in the ES is at the 1621/23 region, 1616/19, and then down to 1613. Below 1613ES gives me great concern, and will have me waiting for a resurrection of a bullish pattern.
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