Coming To The End Of The (a) Wave

With the market continuing lower, there is a real question as to how we will drop to lower lows.  The micro structure can either support a standard impulsive structure, or an ending diagonal for this c-wave.  As long as we remain below 2039SPX at all times now, then we can continue down in impulsive fashion to complete the final 4’s and 5’s in the c-wave of the (a) wave of wave (2).  If we are to move through 2039SPX, then it makes this leg down more likely to be an ending diagonal.

As far as targets are concerned, our larger degree target between 1995-2008SPX has further support.  Often, the a-wave of a wave (2) targets the .382 retracement of wave (1), which is in the 1995SPX region.  Furthermore, the a=c target within this (a) wave targets 2008SPX.  So, my target for this decline remains the same.

Should we see a strong break down below 1995SPX, then it would make more strongly consider the potential of us having topped in P3, as noted in blue on the 60 minute and monthly charts.

1turnchart
1turnchart
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.