by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Thursday June 13th 2013
I know that this is the type of reaction we like to see as the start of a 3rd wave, but I must still caution everyone that this still can be a c-wave. As I have said, I was not selling my longs for this potential rally, and, if I had to, I was going to sell on a (b) wave rally. Well, right now, I am still going to hold onto my intermediate term short positions going out to the Fall, which are hedged as of yesterday, and am not entirely convinced this is a green (5) yet.
Today, I noted this in one of our Wave Alerts, and it is something that REALLY needs to be watched carefully:
I want to point out the McClellan Oscillator here for a minute and note that it is still giving us a very bearish indication. When the market moves from a bullish phase to a bearish phase, this oscillator goes negative and then maintains in the negative region - below the neutral zone - and does not head into positive territory. So, while it may bounce back towards the 0-point, if this does not begin to show signs of life, this will still keep me concerned about the yellow count. So, please maintain vigilance as we move higher.
So, no matter how we view this rally, we will still need a 5 wave move in the grey waves to even consider which count we are watching. After 5 grey waves, if the market will hold relevant support in a pullback for a green wave iv, then we will be going higher in a green wave v for all of green (5). Ideally, the wave (5) of the grey count should take us to at least the 1663ES region and the 1.382 extension. So, we will first have to see how high the 5 grey waves take us before we can even make an appropriate determination as to which is the applicable count, for if 5 waves completes into the 1.00 extension at 1644ES, then that would NOT bode well for the bullish count.
Again, even though a day like today gets bullish juices flowing, please maintain an appropriate perspective and let the market maintain supports to signal that the 1700 region will be targeted.
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