by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Wednesday March 5th 2014
The consolidation we saw today was most likely a 4th wave, and I am counting it as the 4th wave of the final 5th. Alternatively, as you can see in the grey count, if the market truly has designs on a 1900 print, then this is only wave (4) of green iii. But, as we move higher, I will allow the Fibonacci support levels to guide me.
For now, the support I am watching is the 1859-1866ES support region. As long as we remain above that region, then I am looking higher into tomorrow. But, that may be all she wrote, as that would complete 5 waves up. In fact, the 1886ES region is the 2.382 extension in this 5 wave move, and it is where waves 1 and 5 would be equal. We will set up support regions once that next high is hit in order to guide us, but for now, I will consider the next high as the completion of wave 5, until we see a corrective pullback to let us know it was just the top of wave iii of 5.
Also, remember, tomorrow is the Fibonacci 5 year anniversary of the March 2009 low in the market. While it may not mean we get a turn on that exact day, I think one needs to be on high alert for the potential. But, as I said in the Trading Room, I cannot confidently view this uptrend as having completed until 1833ES is taken out with gusto.
But, for now, I am looking higher into tomorrow as long as we remain over 1859ES. A break down below that level can signal a top in place, or the larger diagonal we had discussed taking us the rest of the month to complete.
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