Semi-Nightly Update - Market Analysis

The crypto market is stuck in neutral right now. I'm gonna sign off to get some much needed rest. I'll keep an eye on and get on if I see something worthy, but first a quick update: 

The BULLIES

When you look at the charts just today in isolation, across the big caps, one likely sees the same setup. To my eyes, I'm zoomed out and see the current day in context. In those terms, I see ideal setups in DASH and ZEC, although ZEC can come down for one more low. 

Coins like XRP, and likely perhaps NXT are tracing out leading diagonals to my eyes, which eventually should lead to impulses on a larger scale after wave 2's. 

The TOPPIES

I hold that LTC, XMR, and ETC are in topping patterns. LTC has been strong as you know and because it's micro to this height is a bit tough to count, it is possible we have another 4-5 to higher. Even if we don't it should only see a 4 on the daily and my target is now $260ish in the final top. ETC, as I've stated failed 5 up. While moving into ending diagonal is possible, the chart would do some good to flush to $7 before wave 5. But it doesn't have to. XMR has been tracing an ending diagonal for some time and has been excellent trading on both sides for me. I lean short for now but not a primary trade because when we bottom around the $60's I'll trade for a run to the $200's. 

The NEUTRAL to BULLIES

Ether and Bitcoin remain in neutral for now. I lean bullish since they have failed to break down but will remain cautious. I think I've spend much focus there so this should be clear.

What I want to point here is we can't look at one day all the similarity in rally and retrace and say they are moving together. They really are setup with completely different contexts behind them. We may not detect it on a day to day but they will slowly separate. The biggest example I can give is LTC positive return in July while everything was running down hill. Right now, I think we're seeing immense divergence on a swing basis and this gives opportunity to focus on one setup at time if we are swing trading. 

The tokens are all over the map pattern wise. The only active trade that worries me right now is QTUM. I almost closed it tonight. OML as long as above the beginning low to me is OK, but not ideal. I want to give it some room and will take action tomorrow. It still remains corrective in structure off the high, just way too low. Although all the patterns are different, I'm seeing the signs of a diagonal in a lot of counts. It is this same reason that some of my 'moon counts' failed in July. They were part of diagonals and I didn't see it.  Into June, we were witnessing C waves of a larger corrective wave. The result is a failure of our ideal impulse supports. I've been catching these structures this time, being more familiar with the warning signs. The big culprits I can think of are RISE, CVC, and ADX right now. But there are others. This doesn't mean they are not tradable. But the counts tend to be less clear and targets nebulous by nature. Again, I wlll not trade a diagonal in equtiies generally. In cryptos we get enough range to be in and out. I just don't try to catch the full range. 

I have posted charts for all these, but let me know and I'll follow up in the morning. 

Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.