My Take - Market Analysis for Apr 22nd, 2018

From early Monday morning in Korea...

In the face of both renewed bullishness and skepticism on the board, I just want to summarize my take:

I am not calling a bottom. However we have some promise. But still much to prove and so I'm not carried away.

With respect to the three bellwethers: ETH, LTC, BTC. ETH can be called the cleanest bottom. Again, because LTC and BTC made a three wave move off the Feb 8th low and then failed to break that low, so far. So,  we have a mess. I do not trust those charts (LTC and BTC) and while I'm long both in the long term, I have no interest in playing them hard, and I will be earnest to take some profit as we climb, at least in part. 

Alts have given us an interesting story to watch unfold. We have a lot of subwave structures that are interesting, and can be interpreted as purely bullish. Others look corrective. 

If you recall, I had described how many alts needed to hold and were truly washed out into March and early April. I'm not surprised to see some in a purely bullish stance of a washout in sentiment.

But remember,  until we have a 5 wave move that retraces .618 of the correction, then hold bullishly over support I can't say a bottom is high probability, just promising. 

Now, all this is manageable in trading with EW. If you buy low in support on a pullback, you are in good position. This week, when back home, I'm going to further emphasize this within the subject of timelines. But until then, my general advice is don't get carried away but just buy support as it comes, and stop out if you feel you need to. By doing so, you'll start to get into the groove of making EW useful.